A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
